If ONAP is the answer, what are the questions?

ONAP provides a comprehensive platform for real-time, policy-driven orchestration and automation of physical and virtual network functions that will enable software, network, IT and cloud providers and developers to rapidly automate new services and support complete lifecycle management.
By unifying member resources, ONAP is accelerating the development of a vibrant ecosystem around a globally shared architecture and implementation for network automation–with an open standards focus–faster than any one product could on its own
.”
Part of the ONAP charter from onap.org.

The ONAP project is gaining attention in service provider circles. The Steering Committee of the ONAP project hints at the types of organisations investing in the project. The statement above summarises the mission of this important project. You can bet that the mission has been carefully crafted. As such, one can assume that it represents what these important stakeholders jointly agree to be the future needs of their OSS.

I find it interesting that there are quite a few technical terms (eg policy-driven orchestration) in the mission statement, terms that tend to pre-empt the solution. However, I don’t feel that pre-emptive technical solutions are the real mission, so I’m going to try to reverse-engineer the statement into business needs. Hopefully the business needs (the “why? why? why?” column below) articulates a set of questions / needs that all OSS can work to, as opposed to replicating the technical approach that underpins ONAP.

Phrase Interpretation Why? Why? Why?
real-time The ability to make instantaneous decisions Why1: To adapt to changing conditions
Why2: To take advantage of fleeting opportunities or resolve threats
Why 3: To optimise key business metrics such as financials
Why 4: As CSPs are under increasing pressure from shareholders to deliver on key metrics
policy-driven orchestration To use policies to increase the repeatability of key operational processes Why 1: Repeatability provides the opportunity to improve efficiency, quality and performance
Why 2: Allows an operator to service more customers at less expense
Why 3: Improves corporate profitability and customer perceptions
Why 4: As CSPs are under increasing pressure from shareholders to deliver on key metrics
policy-driven automation To use policies to increase the amount of automation that can be applied to key operational processes Why 1: Automated processes provide the opportunity to improve efficiency, quality and performance
Why 2: Allows an operator to service more customers at less expense
Why 3: Improves corporate profitability and customer perceptions
physical and virtual network functions Our networks will continue to consist of physical devices, but we will increasingly introduce virtualised functionality Why 1: Physical devices will continue to exist into the foreseeable future but virtualisation represents an exciting approach into the future
Why 2: Virtual entities are easier to activate and manage (assuming sufficient capacity exists)
Why 3: Physical equipment supply, build, deploy and test cycles are much longer and labour intensive
Why 4: Virtual assets are more flexible, faster and cheaper to commission
Why 5: Customer services can be turned up faster and cheaper
software, network, IT and cloud providers and developers With this increase in virtualisation, we find an increasingly large and diverse array of suppliers contributing to our value-chain. These suppliers contribute via software, network equipment, IT functions and cloud resources Why 1: CSPs can access innovation and efficiency occurring outside their own organisation
Why 2: CSPs can leverage the opportunities those innovations provide
Why 3: CSPs can deliver more attractive offers to customers
Why 4: Key metrics such as profitability and customer satisfaction are enhanced
rapidly automate new services We want the flexibility to introduce new products and services far faster than we do today Why 1: CSPs can deliver more attractive offers to customers faster than competitors
Why 2: Key metrics such as market share, profitability and customer satisfaction are enhanced as well as improved cashflow
support complete lifecycle management The components that make up our value-chain are changing and evolving so quickly that we need to cope with these changes without impacting customers across any of their interactions with their service Why 1: Customer satisfaction is a key metric and a customer’s experience spans the entire lifecyle of their service.
Why 2: CSPs don’t want customers to churn to competitors
Why 3: Key metrics such as market share, profitability and customer satisfaction are enhanced
unifying member resources To reduce the amount of duplicated and under-synchronised development currently being done by the member bodies of ONAP Why 1: Collaboration and sharing reduces the effort each member body must dedicate to their OSS
Why 2: A reduced resource pool is required
Why 3: Costs can be reduced whilst still achieving a required level of outcome from OSS
vibrant ecosystem To increase the level of supplier interchangability Why 1: To reduce dependence on any supplier/s
Why 2: To improve competition between suppliers
Why 3: Lower prices, greater choice and greater innovation tend to flourish in competitive environments
Why 4: CSPs, as customers of the suppliers, benefit
globally shared architecture To make networks, services and support systems easier to interconnect across the global communications network Why 1: Collaboration on common standards reduces the integration effort between each member at points of interconnect
Why 2: A reduced resource pool is required
Why 3: Costs can be reduced whilst still achieving interconnection benefits

As indicated in earlier posts, ONAP is an exciting initiative for the CSP industry for a number of reasons. My fear for ONAP is that it becomes such a behemoth of technical complexity that it becomes too unwieldy for use by any of the member bodies. I use the analogy of ATM versus Ethernet here, where ONAP is equivalent to ATM in power and complexity. The question is whether there’s an Ethernet answer to the whys that ONAP is trying to solve.

I’d love to hear your thoughts.

(BTW. I’m not saying that the technologies the ONAP team is investigating are the wrong ones. Far from it. I just find it interesting that the mission is starting with a technical direction in mind. I see parallels with the OSS radar analogy.)

Stop looking for exciting new features for your OSS

The iPhone disrupted the handset business, but has not disrupted the cellular network operators at all, though many people were convinced that it would. For all that’s changed, the same companies still have the same business model and the same customers that they did in 2006. Online flight booking doesn’t disrupt airlines much, but it was hugely disruptive to travel agents. Online booking (for the sake of argument) was sustaining innovation for airlines and disruptive innovation for travel agents.
Meanwhile, the people who are first to bring the disruption to market may not be the people who end up benefiting from it, and indeed the people who win from the disruption may actually be doing something different – they may be in a different part of the value chain. Apple pioneered PCs but lost the PC market, and the big winners were not even other PC companies. Rather, most of the profits went to Microsoft and Intel, which both operated at different layers of the stack. PCs themselves became a low-margin commodity with fierce competition, but PC CPUs and operating systems (and productivity software) turned out to have very strong winner-takes-all effects
.”
Ben Evans
on his blog about Tesla.

As usual, Ben makes some thought-provoking points. The ones above have coaxed me into thinking about OSS from a slightly perspective.

I’d tended to look at OSS as a product to be consumed by network operators (and further downstream by the customers of those network operators). I figured that if our OSS delivered benefit to the downstream customers, the network operators would thrive and would therefore be prepared to invest more into OSS projects. In a way, it’s a bit like a sell-through model.

But the ideas above give some alternatives for OSS providers to reduce dependence on network operator budgets.

Traditional OSS fit within a value-chain that’s driven by customers that wish to communicate. In the past, the telephone network was perceived as the most valuable part of that value-chain. These days, digitisation and competition has meant that the perceived value of the network has dropped to being a low-margin commodity in most cases. We’re generally not prepared to pay a premium for a network service. The Microsofts and Intels of the communications value-chain is far more diverse. It’s the Googles, Facebooks, Instagrams, YouTubes, etc that are perceived to deliver most value to end customers today.

If I were looking for a disruptive OSS business model, I wouldn’t be looking to add exciting new features within the existing OSS model. In fact, I’d be looking to avoid our current revenue dependence on network operators (ie the commoditising aspects of the communications value-chain). Instead I’d be looking for ways to contribute to the most valuable aspects of the chain (eg apps, content, etc). Or even better, to engineer a more exceptional comms value-chain than we enjoy today, with an entirely new type of OSS.

Chasing the big OSS waves

The diagram below attempts to show how the entire market (whether that’s the supplier-side or the buyer-side) will absorb a given new feature.

The leaders pick up the concept at T0 and then it takes another few years before the laggards implement it.
OSS Buyer Developer Curve

Most of us in the OSS implementation world crave to be at the leading edge of change. The right-side of the curve is definitely the sexier side to be on. I know I do. It’s part of the reason this blog exists – to stay abreast of the exciting new ideas, projects and technologies that are coming through in OSS. Funnily enough, there’s probably even people within most of the laggards who are already excited about a new concept not long after T0, but are just unable to implement it until much later.

Supplier sales-pitches also tend to focus on the right side of the curve. That’s where the buzz is. That’s where the premiums are, the rewards for being first to market. It’s the customers on the right-side of the curve that are most attractive as sales targets for many suppliers.

But I also wonder whether the increasing proliferation of tech options within OSS means there’s also increasing inefficiency for suppliers (and possibly buyers) on the right side of the curve? Do we focus all our development efforts on ONAP or [insert any of millions of other alternative platforms, technologies, ideas, etc] today? What if the mass-market goes down an alternate path to the one you’ve chosen? How long before you identify a divergence from the mass-market trend? What’s the impact of changing direction (or not)? Are you bound to spill some blood by playing on the bleeding edge?

The left side of the graph is arguably more predictable. You can already see where the market is trending. Has the whole concept just been hype or has this new thing really made a difference for customers? Most of the implementation hurdles are likely to have already been resolved. Products have matured. More integrations, reports, etc have been developed. Waters have already been chartered.

I don’t have the numbers to back this up, but I also have a suspicion that there’s less supplier competition for the business of laggard or follower customers. I’ve seen some companies that have thrived on this model. They get a nice unimpeded ride on the back of the wave whilst everyone else is fighting to catch the front-edge of it.

Chasing the left side of the curve might seem counter-intuitive because it clearly represents a falling market. But there’s always the next wave to jump onto, each with similar predictability and reduced competition.

Not only that, but a majority of the the most important OSS use-cases have been around for many years. It’s increasingly difficult to find new functionality that delivers tangible benefits. Whilst other suppliers have jumped off to chase the next big thing, the followers can keep refining their solutions for what matters most.

Let me pose the question this way – Can you think of a single OSS product that is so refined that it can’t do the basics any better than it already does? Nope??

OSS operationalisation at scale

We had a highly flexible network design team at a previous company. Not because we wanted to necessarily, but because we were forced to by the client’s allocation of work.

Our team was largely based on casual workers because there was little to predict whether we needed 2 designers or 50 in any given week. The workload being assigned by the client was incredibly lumpy.

But we were lucky. We only had design work. The lumpiness in design effort flowed down through the work stack into construction, test and deployment teams. The constructors had millions of dollars of equipment that they needed to mobilise and demobilise as the work ebbed and flowed. Unfortunately for the constructors, they’d prepared their rate cards on the assumption of a fairly consistent level of work coming through (it was a very big project).

This lumpiness didn’t work out for anyone in the delivery pipeline, the client included. It was actually quite instrumental in a few of the constructors going into liquidation. The client struggled to meet roll-out targets.

The allocation of work was being made via the client’s B/OSS stack. The B/OSS teams were blissfully unaware of the downstream impact of their sporadic allocation of designs. Towards the end of the project, they were starting to get more consistent and delivery teams started to get into more of a rhythm… just as the network was coming to the end of build.

As OSS builders, we sometimes get so wrapped up in delivering functionality that we can forget that one of the key requirements of an OSS is to operationalise at scale. In addition to UI / CX design, this might be something as simple as smoothing the effort allocation for work under our OSS‘s management.

Shifting a problem to the left using OSS

Interesting table below in relation to the customer satisfaction and costs of delivering various styles of customer assurance activities:

Proactive Fix Self-help L1/2/3 Assurance Field Operations
Customer Satisfaction Very High High Medium Low
Expense Low Medium High Very High

The ambition for any organisation is to perform a shift to the left on this table. In other words, to introduce assurance mechanisms that increase the likelihood of an event being captured towards the left of the table (ie before becoming a field operations issue to solve). In theory, every shift left results in greater customer satisfaction and reduced cost to the operator.

Of course it’s a generic table (eg some proactive assurance programs can be higher than a “low” cost classification), but it does tell a story.

Our OSS cover the full scope of this table. Our OSS don’t perform L1/2/3 assurance or Field Ops, but they certainly help to coordinate and manage those activities.

If you were to use this table to classify your operational costs, what does the cost profile look like? Is it heavily weighted to the right side of the table? Does your operational cost profile justify further investment in your OSS to shift some of those costs to the left?

This post from sysaid has some further shift-left concepts as they relate to service management within IT.

If your partners don’t have to talk to you then you win

If your partners don’t have to talk to you then you win.”
Guy Lupo
.

Put another way, the best form of customer service is no customer service (ie your customers and/or partners are so delighted with your automated offerings that they have no reason to contact you). They don’t want to contact you anyway (generally speaking). They just want to consume a perfectly functional and reliable solution.

In the deep, distant past, our comms networks required operators. But then we developed automated dialling / switching. In theory, the network looked after itself and people made billions of calls per year unassisted.

Something happened in the meantime though. Telco operators the world over started receiving lots of calls about their platform and products. You could say that they’re unwanted calls. The telcos even have an acronym called CVR – Call Volume Reduction – that describes their ambitions to reduce the number of customer calls that reach contact centre agents. Tools such as chatbots and IVR have sprung up to reduce the number of calls that an operator fields.

Network as a Service (NaaS), the context within Guy’s comment above, represents the next new tool that will aim to drive CVR (amongst a raft of other benefits). NaaS theoretically allows customers to interact with network operators via impersonal contracts (in the form of APIs). The challenge will be in the reliability – ensuring that nothing falls between the cracks in any of the layers / platforms that combine to form the NaaS.

In the world of NaaS creation, Guy is exactly right – “If your partners [and customers] don’t have to talk to you then you win.” As always, it’s complexity that leads to gaps. The more complex the NaaS stack, the less likely you are to achieve CVR.

The OSS self-driving vehicle

I was lucky enough to get some time of a friend recently, a friend who’s running a machine-learning network assurance proof-of-concept (PoC).

He’s been really impressed with the results coming out of the PoC. However, one of the really interesting factors he’s been finding is how frequently BAU (business as usual) changes in the OSS data (eg changes in naming conventions, topologies, etc) would impact results. Little changes made by upstream systems effectively invalidated baselines identified by the machine-learning engines to key in on. Those little changes meant the engine had to re-baseline / re-learn to build back up to previous insight levels. Or to avoid invalidating the baseline, it would require re-normalising all of data prior to the identification of BAU changes.

That got me wondering whether DevOps (or any other high-change environment) might actually hinder our attempts to get machine-led assurance optimisation. But more to the point, does constant change (at all levels of a telco business) hold us back from reaching our aim of closed-loop / zero-touch assurance?

Just like the proverbial self-driving car, will we always need someone at the wheel of our OSS just in case a situation arises that the machines hasn’t seen before and/or can’t handle? How far into the future will it be before we have enough trust to take our hands off the OSS wheel and let the machines drive closed-loop processes without observation by us?

Your OSS Justice League

Is it just me or has there been a proliferation of superhero movies coming out at cinemas lately? Not only that, but movies where teams of superheros link up to defeat the baddies (eg Deadpool 2, Justice League, etc)?

The thing that strikes me as interesting is that there’s rarely an overlap of super-powers within the team. They all have their different strengths and points of difference. The sum of the parts… blah, blah, blah.

Anyway, I’m curious whether you’ve noticed the same thing as me on OSS projects, that when there are multiple team members with significant skill / experience overlap, the project can bog down in indecision? I’ve noticed this particularly when there are many architects, often super-talented ones, on a project. Instead of getting the benefit of collaboration of great minds, we can end up with too many possibilities (and possibly egos) to work through and the project stagnates.

If you were to hand-pick your all-star cast for your OSS Justice League, just like in the movies, you’d look for a team of differentiated, but hopefully complementary, super-heroes I assume. But I’m diverting away from my main point here.

Each project, just like each formidable foe in the movies, is slightly different and needs slightly different super-powers to tackle it. When selecting a cast for a movie, directors have a global pool to choose from. When selecting a cast for an OSS project, directors have traditionally chosen from their own organisation, possibly with some outside hires to fill the long-term gaps.

With the increasing availability of freelance resources (ie people who aren’t intrinsically tied to carriers or vendors), the proposition of selecting a purpose-built project team of OSS super-heroes is actually beginning to become more possible. I’m wondering how much the gig economy will change the traditional OSS project team model in coming years.

I’d love to hear your thoughts and experiences on this.

An alternate way of slicing OSS (part 2)

Last week we talked about an alternate way of slicing OSS projects. Today, we’ll look a little deeper and include some diagrams.

The traditional (aka waterfall) approach to delivering an OSS project sees one big-bang delivery of business value at the end of the implementation.
OSS project delivery via waterfall

The yellow arrows indicate the sequential nature of this style of delivery. The implications include:

  1. If the project runs out of funds before the project finishes, no (negligible) value is delivered
  2. If there’s no modularity of delivery then the project team must stay the course of the original project plan. There’s no room for prioritising or dropping or including delivery modules. Project plans are rarely perfect at first after all
  3. Any changes in project plan tend to have knock-on effects into the rest of the delivery
  4. There is only one true delivery of value, but milestones demonstrate momentum for the project… a key for change management and team morale
  5. Large deliverables represent the proverbial overload one segment of the project delivery team then under-utilises the rest in each stage.  This isn’t great for project flow or team utilisation

The alternate approach seeks to deliver in multiple phases by business value, not artefacts, as shown in the sample model below:
OSS project delivery via AgilePhased enhancements following a base platform build (eg Sandpit and/or Single-site above) could include the following, where each provides a tangible outcome / benefit for the business, thus maintaining perception of momentum (assurance use-cases cited):

  • Additional event collection (ie additional collectors / probes / mediation-devices can be added or configured)
  • Additional filters / sorting of events
  • Event prioritisation mapping / presentation
  • Event correlation
  • Fault suppression
  • Fault escalation
  • Alarm augmentation
  • Alarm thresholding
  • Root-cause analysis (intra, then inter-domain)
  • Other configurations such as latching, auto-acknowledgement, visualisation parameters, etc
  • Heart-beat function (ie devices are unreachable for a user-defined period)
  • Knowledge base (ie developing a database of activities to respond to certain events)
  • Interfacing with other systems (eg trouble-ticket, work-force management, inventory, etc)
  • Setup of roles/groups
  • Setup of skills-based routing
  • Setup of reporting
  • Setup of notifications (eg email, SMS, etc)
  • Naming convention refinements
  • etc, etc

The latter is a more Agile-style breakdown of work, but doesn’t need to be delivered using Agile methodology.

Of course there are pros and cons of each approach. I’d love to hear your thoughts and experiences with different OSS delivery approaches.

Expanding your bag of OSS tricks

Let me ask you a question – when you’ve expanded your bag of tricks that help you to manage your OSS, where have they typically originated?

By reading? By doing? By asking? Through mentoring? Via training courses?
Relating to technical? People? Process? Product?
Operations? Network? Hardware? Software?
Design? Procure? Implement / delivery? Test? Deploy?
By retrospective thinking? Creative thinking? Refinement thinking?
Other?

If you were to highlight the questions above that are most relevant to the development of your bag of tricks, how much coverage does your pattern show?

There are so many facets to our OSS (ie. tentacles on the OctopOSS) aren’t there? We have to have a large bag of tricks. Not only that, we need to be constantly adding new tricks too right?

I tend to find that our typical approaches to OSS knowledge transfer cover only a small subset (think about discussion topics at OSS conferences that tend to just focus on the technical / architectural)… yet don’t align with how we (or maybe just I) have developed capabilities in the past.

The question then becomes, how do we facilitate the broader learnings required to make our OSS great? To introduce learning opportunities for ourselves and our teams across vaguely related fields such as project management, change management, user interface design, process / workflows, creative thinking, etc, etc.

The OSS co-op business model

A co-operative is a member-owned business structure with at least five members, all of whom have equal voting rights regardless of their level of involvement or investment. All members are expected to help run the cooperative.”
Small Business WA.

The co-op business model has fascinated me since doing some tech projects in the dairy industry in the deep distant past. The dairy co-ops empower collaboration of dairy farmers where the might of the collective outweighs that of each individually. As the collective, they’ve been able to establish massive processing plants, distribution lines, bargaining power, etc. The dairy co-ops are a sell-side collaboration.

By contrast open source projects like ONAP represent an interesting hybrid – part buy-side collaboration (ie the service providers acquiring software to run their organisations) and part sell-side (ie the vendors contributing code to the project alongside the service providers).

I’ve long been intrigued by the potential for a pure sell-side co-operative in OSS.

As we all know, the OSS market is highly fragmented (just look the number of vendors / products on this page), which means inefficiency because of the duplicated effort across vendors. A level of market efficiency comes from mergers and acquisitions. In addition, some comes from vendors forming partnerships to offer more complete solutions to a given customer requirement list.

But the key to a true sell-side OSS co-operative would be in the definition above – “at least five members.” Perhaps it’s an open-source project that brings them together. Perhaps it’s an extended partnership.

As Tom Nolle stated in an article that prompted the writing of today’s post, “On the vendor side, commoditization tends to force consolidation. A vendor who doesn’t have a nice market share has little to hope for but slow decline. A couple such vendors (like Infinera and Coriant, recently) can combine with the hope that the combination will be more survivable than the individual companies were likely to be. Consolidation weeds out industry inefficiencies like parallel costly operations structures, and so makes the remaining players stronger.

Imagine for a moment if instead of having developers spread across 100 alarm management tools, that same developer pool can take a consolidated 5 alarm management products forward? Do you think we’d get better, more innovative, more complete products faster?

Having said that, co-ops have their weaknesses too.

What do you think? Could such a model work? Would it be a disaster?

OSS, with drama, without drama. Your choice

A recent blog from Seth Godin brought back some memories from a past project.

Two ways to solve a problem and provide a service.
With drama. Make sure the customer knows just how hard you’re working, what extent you’re going to in order to serve. Make a big deal out of the special order, the additional cost, the sweat and the tears.
Without drama. Make it look effortless.
Either can work. Depends on the customer and the situation.
Seth Godin here.

Over the course of the long-running and challenging project, I worked under a number of different Program Directors. The second last (chronologically) took the team barrel-chested down the “With Drama” path whilst the last took the “Without Drama” approach.

The “With Drama” approach was very melodramatic and political, but to be honest, was also really draining. It was draining because of the high levels of contact (eg meetings, reports, etc), reducing the amount of productive delivery time.

The “Without Drama” approach did make it look effortless, because by comparison it was effortless. The Program Director took responsibility for peer-level contact and cleared the way for the delivery team to focus on delivering. The team was still working well over 60 hour weeks, but it was now more clearly focused on delivery tasks. Interestingly, this approach brought a seemingly endless project to a systematic and clean conclusion (ie delivery) within about three months.

Now I’m not sure about your experiences or preferences, but I’d go with the “Without Drama” OSS delivery approach every time. The emotional intensity required of the “With Drama” approach just isn’t sustainable over long-running projects like our OSS projects tend to be.

What are your thoughts / experiences?

How an OSS is like an F1 car

A recent post discussed the challenge of getting a timeslice of operations people to help build the OSS. That post surmised, “as the old saying goes, you get back what you put in. In the case of OSS I’ve seen it time and again that operations need to contribute significantly to the implementation to ensure they get a solution that fits their needs.”

I have a new saying for you today, this time from T.D. Jakes, “You can’t be committed to the dream. You have to be committed to the process.”

If you’re representing an organisation that is buying an OSS solution from a vendor / integrator, please consider these two adages above. Sometimes we’re good at forming the dream (eg business requirements, business case, etc) and expecting the vendor to conduct almost all of the process. While our network operations teams are hired for the process of managing the network, we also need their significant input on the process of building / configuring an OSS. The vendor / integrator can’t just develop it in isolation and then hand it over to ops with a few days of training at the end.

The process of bringing a new OSS into an organisation is not like buying a road car. With an OSS, you can’t just place an order with some optional features like paint and trim specified, then expect to start driving it as soon as it leaves the vendor’s assembly line. It’s more like an F1 car where the driver is in constant communications with the pit-crew, changing and tweaking and refining to optimise the car to the driver’s unique needs (and in turn to hopefully optimise the results).

At least, that’s what current-state OSS are like. Perhaps in the future… we’ll strive to refine our OSS to be more like a road-car – standardised and intuitive enough for operators to drive straight off the assembly line.

Orchestration looks a bit like provisioning

The following is the result of a survey question posed by TM Forum:
Number 1 Driver for Orchestration

I’m not sure how the numbers tally, but conceptually the graph above paints an interesting perspective of why orchestration is important. The graph indicates the why.

But in this case, for me, the why is the by-product of the how. The main attraction of orchestration models is in how we can achieve modularity. All of the business outcomes mentioned in the graph above will only be achievable as a result of modularity.

Put another way, rather than having the integration spaghetti of an “old-school” OSS / BSS stack, orchestration (and orchestration plans) potentially provides the ability to provide clearer demarcation and abstraction all the way from product design down into transactions that hit the network… not to mention the meet-in-the-middle points between business units.

Demarcation points support catalog items (perhaps as APIs / microservices with published contracts), allowing building-block design of products rather than involvement of (and disputes between) business units all down the line of product design. This facilitates the speed (34%) and services on demand (28%) objectives stated in the graph.

But I used the term “old-school” with intent above. The modularity mentioned above was already achieved in some older OSS too. The ability to carve up, sequence, prioritise and re-construct a stream of service orders was already achievable by some provisioning + workflow engines of the past.

The business outcomes remain the same now as they were then, but perhaps orchestration takes it to the next level.

There is no differentiation left in out-bundling competitors

In 1998 Berkshire Hathaway acquired a reinsurance company called General Re. “The only significant staff change that followed the merger was the elimination of General Re’s investment unit. Some 150 people had been in charge of deciding where to invest the company’s funds; they were replaced with just one individual – Warren Buffett.
Robert G. Hagstrom
in, “The Warren Buffett Way.”

Buffett was able to replace 150 people, and significantly outperform them, because they were conducting (relatively) small value, high volume transactions and he did the exact opposite.

Compare this with Gemini Waghmare’s thoughts on BSS, “It used to be that operators differentiated by pricing. Complex bundles, friends and family plans, rollover minutes and megabytes were used as ways to win over consumers. This drove significant investment into charging platforms and product catalogs. The internet economy runs on one-click purchases and a recurring flat rate. Roaming and overages are going away and transactional VOD (video on-demand) makes way for subscription VOD.
It’s not uncommon for operators to have 10,000 price plans while Netflix has three. Facebook and Google make billions of dollars without charging a cent.
Operators would do well to deprecate the value of their charging systems and invest instead in cloud and flat-rate billing with added focus on collecting, normalizing and monetizing user data. By simplifying subscription models with lightweight billing platforms, the scale and cost of BSS will drop dramatically. After all, there is no differentiation left in out-bundling competitors
,” quoted here on Inform. There are some brilliant insights in this link, so I recommend you taking a closer look BTW.

10,000+ pricing plans definitely sounds like the equivalent to General Re before Buffett arrived. Having only 3 pricing plans would be more like the Buffett approach, change the dynamic of BSS tools and the size of the teams that use them! Having only 3 pricing plans would certainly change the dynamic for OSS too. The number of variants we’d be asked to handle would diminish, making it much easier to build and operate our OSS. Due to all the down-stream inefficiencies, you could actually argue that there is only negative-differentiation left in out-bundling competitors.

As an aside… Interesting comment that, “Facebook and Google make billions of dollars without charging a cent.” I’d beg to differ. Whilst consumers of the service aren’t billed, advertisers certainly are, which I assume still needs a billing engine… one that probably has quite a bit of algorithmic complexity.

Taking SMEs out of ops to build an OSS

OSS are there to do just that – support operations. So as OSS implementers we have to do just that too.

But as the old saying goes, you get back what you put in. In the case of OSS I’ve seen it time and again that operations need to contribute significantly to the implementation to ensure they get a solution that fits their needs.

Just one problem here though. Operations are hired to operate the network, not build OSS. Now let’s assume the operations team does decide to commit heavily to your OSS build, thus taking away from network ops at some level (unless they choose to supplement the ops team).

That still leaves operations team leaders with a dilemma. Do they take certain SMEs out of ops to focus entirely on the OSS build (and thus act as nominees for the rest of the team) or do they cycle many of their ops people through the dual roles (at risk of task-switching inefficiency)?

There are pros and cons with each aren’t there? Which would you choose and why? Do you have an alternate approach?

Market for orchestration to triple from 2018 to 2023… but…

CSPs’ needs in orchestration are evolving in parallel on several dimensions. These can be considered hierarchically. At the highest level is software that has an end-to-end service role, as is the case in the ONAP project. This software generally supports a service life-cycle perspective, containing functions from design and service creation, to provisioning and activation, to operations management, analysis, upgrade and evolution.
Beneath this tier, in a resource-facing sense, is software that simplifies deployment and operation of virtual system infrastructures in cloud-native applications, NFV, vco/CORD and MEC. This carries the overall tag of MANO and incorporates the domains of NFV (with NFVO, for deployment and operation of virtualized network functions) and virtualized infrastructure management (or VIM, for automating deployment and operation of virtual system infrastructures). Open source developments are significant at each of these layers of orchestration, and each contains a significant portion of the overall orchestration TAM.
In parallel is the functionality for managing hybrid virtual and physical infrastructures, which is the reality in most CSP environments. This can be thought of as a lateral branch to MANO for virtualized infrastructures in the orchestration stack.
Together these categories make up the TAM [Total Addressable Market] for orchestration solutions with CSPs. This is a high-priority area of focus for CSPs and is one of the highest growth areas of software innovation and development in support of their service delivery needs. We expect the TAM for orchestration software to triple from 2018 through 2023 at a CAGR of 32.5%. This is partially because of the nascent level of the offerings at the current time, as well as the high priority that CSPs and their vendor suppliers are placing on the domain
.”
Succeeding on an Open Field: The Impact of Open Source Technologies on the Communication Service Provider Ecosystem,” an ACG Research Report.

Whilst the title of this blog is just one of the headline numbers in this report by ACG Research, there are a number of other interesting call-outs, so it’s well worth having a closer read of the report.

The research has been funded by the Linux Foundation, so it naturally has a focus on open-source solutions for network operators (CSPs). Here’s another quote from the report relating to open-source, “The main motivations behind the push for open source solutions in CSP operations are not simply focused on cost reduction as a goal. CSPs are thinking strategically and globally. There is a realization that the competitive landscape for communication and information services is changing rapidly, and it includes global, webscale service providers and over-the-top solutions.
Leading CSPs want industry collaboration and cooperation to solve common challenges…
Their top three motivations are:
• Unifying multiple service providers around a common approach
• Avoiding vendor lock-in and dependencies on a single vendor
• Accessing a broader talent pool than your own organization or any one vendor could provide

The first bullet-point is where the CSPs diverge from the likes of AWS and Google. Whilst the CSPs, each with their local geographical reach, seek global unification through standardisation (ie to ensure simpler interconnection), AWS and Google appear to be seeking global reach and global domination (making unification efforts irrelevant for them).

Just curious though. What if global domination does come to pass in the next few years? Will there be a three-fold increase in the orchestration market or complete decimation? Check out this earlier post that describes an OSS doomsday scenario.

Global CSPs have significant revenue streams that won’t disappear by 2023 and will be certain to put up a fight against becoming obsolescent under that doomsday scenario. It seems that open source and orchestration are key weapons in this global battle, so we’re bound to see some big investments in this space.

3 categories of OSS investment justification

Insurer IAG has modelled the financial cost that a data breach or ransomware attack would have on its business, in part to understand how much proposed infosec investments might offset its losses.
Head of cybersecurity and governance Ian Cameron told IBM Think 2018 in Sydney that the “value-at-risk modelling” project called upon the company’s actuarial expertise to put numbers on different types and levels of security threats.
“Because we’re an insurance company, we can use actuarial methods to price or model what the costs of a loss event would be,” Cameron said.
“If we have a major data breach or a major ransomware attack, we’ve done some really great work in the past 12 months to model the net cost of losses to our organisation in terms of the loss of productivity, the cost of advertising to address the concerns of our customers, the legal costs, and the costs of regulatory oversight.
“We’ve been able to work out the distribution of loss from a small event to a very big event
.”
Ry Crozier
on IT News.

There are really only three main categories of benefit that an OSS can be built around:

  • Cost reduction
  • Revenue generation / increase
  • Brand value (ie insurance of the brand, via protection of customer perception of the brand)

The last on the list is rarely used (in my experience) to justify OSS/BSS investment. The IAG experience of costing out infosec risk to operations and brand is an interesting one. It’s also one that has some strong parallels for the OSS/BSS of network operators.

Many people in the telecoms industry treat OSS/BSS as an afterthought and/or an expensive cost centre. Those people fail to recognise that the OSS/BSS are the operationalisation engines that allow customers to use the network assets.

Just as IAG was able to do through actuarial analysis, a telco’s OSS/BSS team could “work out the distribution of loss from a small event to (be) a very big event” (for the telco’s brand value). Consider the loss of repute during sustained network outages. Consider the impact of negative word-of-mouth from billing mistakes. Consider how revenue leakage analysis and predictive network health management might offset losses.

Can the IAG approach work for justifying your investment in OSS/BSS?

Do you use any other major categories for justifying OSS/BSS spend?

The OSS transformation dilemma

There’s a particular carrier that I know quite well that appears to despise a particular OSS vendor… but keeps coming back to them… and keeps getting let down by them… but keeps coming back to them. And I’m not just talking about support of their existing OSS, but whole new tools.

It never made sense to me… until reading Seth Godin’s blog today. In it, he states, “…this market segment knows that things that are too good to be true can’t possibly work, and that’s fine with them, because they don’t actually want to change–they simply want to be able to tell themselves that they tried. That the organization they paid their money to failed, of course it wasn’t their failure. Once you see that this short-cut market segment exists, you can choose to serve them or to ignore them. And you can be among them or refuse to buy in

It starts to makes sense. The same carrier has a tendency to spend big money on the big-4 consultants whenever an important decision needs to be made. If the big, ambitious project then fails, the carrier’s project sponsors can say that the big-4 organization they paid their money to failed.

Does that ring true of any telco you’ve worked with? That they don’t actually want to change–they simply want to be able to tell themselves that they tried (or be seen to have tried) with their OSS transformation?

Are we actually stuck in one big dilemma? Are our OSS transformations actually so hard that they’re destined to fail, yet are already failing so badly that we desperately need to transform them? If so, then Seth’s insightful observation gives the appearance of progress AND protection from the pain of failure.

Not sure about you, but I’ll take Seth’s “refuse to buy in” option and try to incite change.

An OSS doomsday scenario

If I start talking about doomsday scenarios where the global OSS job industry is decimated, most people will immediately jump to the conclusion that I’m predicting an artificial intelligence (AI) takeover. AI could have a role to play, but is not a key facet of the scenario I’m most worried about.
OSS doomsday scenario

You’d think that OSS would be quite a niche industry, but there must be thousands of OSS practitioners in my home town of Melbourne alone. That’s partly due to large projects currently being run in Australia by major telcos such as nbn, Telstra, SingTel-Optus and Vodafone, not to mention all the smaller operators. Some of these projects are likely to scale back in coming months / years, meaning less seats in a game of OSS musical chairs. But this isn’t the doomsday scenario I’m hinting at in the title either. There will still be many roles at the telcos and the vendors / integrators that support them.

There are hundreds of OSS vendors in the market now, with no single dominant player. It’s a really fragmented market that would appear to be ripe for M&A (mergers and acquisitions). Ripe for consolidation, but massive consolidation is still not the doomsday scenario because there would still be many OSS roles in that situation.

The doomsday scenario I’m talking about is one where only one OSS gains domination globally. But how?

Most traditional telcos have a local geographic footprint with partners/subsidiaries in other parts of the world, but are constrained by the costs and regulations of a wired or cellular footprint to be able to reach all corners of the globe. All that uniqueness currently leads to the diversity of OSS offerings we see today. The doomsday scenario arises if one single network operator usurps all the traditional telcos and their legacy network / OSS / BSS stacks in one technological fell swoop.

How could a disruption of that magnitude happen? I’m not going to predict, but a satellite constellation such as the one proposed by Starlink has some of the hallmarks of such a scenario. By using low-earth orbit (LEO) satellites (ie lower latency than geostationary satellite solutions), point-to-point laser interconnects between them and peering / caching of data in the sky, it could fundamentally change the world of communications and OSS.

It has global reach, no need for carrier interconnect (hence no complex contract negotiations or OSS/BSS integration for that matter), no complicated lead-in negotiations or reinstatements, no long-haul terrestrial or submarine cable systems. None of the traditional factors that cost so much time and money to get customers connected and keep them connected (only the complication of getting and keeping the constellation of birds in the sky – but we’ll put that to the side for now). It would be hard for traditional telcos to compete.

I’m not suggesting that Starlink can or will be THE ubiquitous global communications network. What if Google, AWS or Microsoft added this sort of capability to their strengths in hosting / data? Such a model introduces a new, consistent network stack without the telcos’ tech debt burdens discussed here. The streamlined network model means the variant tree is millions of times simpler. And if the variant tree is that much simpler, so is the operations model and so is the OSS… with one distinct contradiction. It would need to scale for billions of customers rather than millions and trillions of events.

You might be wondering about all the enterprise OSS. Won’t they survive? Probably not. Comms networks are generally just an important means-to-an-end for enterprises. If the one global network provider were to service every organisation with local or global WANs, as well as all the hosting they would need, and hosted zero-touch network operations like Google is already pre-empting, would organisation have a need to build or own an on-premises OSS?

One ubiquitous global network, with a single pared back but hyperscaled OSS, most likely purpose-built with self-healing and/or AI as core constructs (not afterthoughts / retrofits like for existing OSS). How many OSS roles would survive that doomsday scenario?

Do you have an alternative OSS doomsday scenario that you’d like to share?

Hat tip again to Jay Fenton for pointing out what Starlink has been up to.