Chasing the big OSS waves

The diagram below attempts to show how the entire market (whether that’s the supplier-side or the buyer-side) will absorb a given new feature.

The leaders pick up the concept at T0 and then it takes another few years before the laggards implement it.
OSS Buyer Developer Curve

Most of us in the OSS implementation world crave to be at the leading edge of change. The right-side of the curve is definitely the sexier side to be on. I know I do. It’s part of the reason this blog exists – to stay abreast of the exciting new ideas, projects and technologies that are coming through in OSS. Funnily enough, there’s probably even people within most of the laggards who are already excited about a new concept not long after T0, but are just unable to implement it until much later.

Supplier sales-pitches also tend to focus on the right side of the curve. That’s where the buzz is. That’s where the premiums are, the rewards for being first to market. It’s the customers on the right-side of the curve that are most attractive as sales targets for many suppliers.

But I also wonder whether the increasing proliferation of tech options within OSS means there’s also increasing inefficiency for suppliers (and possibly buyers) on the right side of the curve? Do we focus all our development efforts on ONAP or [insert any of millions of other alternative platforms, technologies, ideas, etc] today? What if the mass-market goes down an alternate path to the one you’ve chosen? How long before you identify a divergence from the mass-market trend? What’s the impact of changing direction (or not)? Are you bound to spill some blood by playing on the bleeding edge?

The left side of the graph is arguably more predictable. You can already see where the market is trending. Has the whole concept just been hype or has this new thing really made a difference for customers? Most of the implementation hurdles are likely to have already been resolved. Products have matured. More integrations, reports, etc have been developed. Waters have already been chartered.

I don’t have the numbers to back this up, but I also have a suspicion that there’s less supplier competition for the business of laggard or follower customers. I’ve seen some companies that have thrived on this model. They get a nice unimpeded ride on the back of the wave whilst everyone else is fighting to catch the front-edge of it.

Chasing the left side of the curve might seem counter-intuitive because it clearly represents a falling market. But there’s always the next wave to jump onto, each with similar predictability and reduced competition.

Not only that, but a majority of the the most important OSS use-cases have been around for many years. It’s increasingly difficult to find new functionality that delivers tangible benefits. Whilst other suppliers have jumped off to chase the next big thing, the followers can keep refining their solutions for what matters most.

Let me pose the question this way – Can you think of a single OSS product that is so refined that it can’t do the basics any better than it already does? Nope??

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