Future Scenario Planning: Four Possible Scenarios (part 2)

As discussed in the previous article, “Future Scenario Planning: Have you given up on doing an OSS transformation? (part 1)” part of the fun of OSS/BSS transformation is trying to imagine the future environment, 5-10 years from now, when your transformed OSS/BSS is still servicing the needs of your future stakeholders. But what does that future look like? Nobody can truly predict the future.

“No matter what future takes place, you are much more likely to be ready for it – and influential in it – if you have thought seriously about scenarios.”
Peter Schwartz

Fortunately for us, Peter Schwartz has outlined a methodology for conducting long-range scenario planning that might help with your planning.  The methodology is described in the previous article too (note that you may wish to re-read part 1 in this series as we had to refine some aspects of the methodology since the first draft of the article).

 

Here’s the 2×2 matrix that bubbled out of the first few steps in that methodology:

As was previously discussed, these consider two high-impact variables (tech growth and regulatory control) as well as high-impact certainties (geopolitical influence and climate change pressures).

To describe these scenarios in more detail:

  1. Regulated Innovation:
    1. In this scenario, the regulatory environment is tight, with strong privacy laws, strict net neutrality enforcement, net-zero targets and heavy regulation of new technologies. Despite this, technology advances quickly, with breakthroughs in AI, quantum computing, Augmented Reality and LEO satellite communications. Companies navigate a landscape where compliance is crucial but innovative tech provides competitive advantages
    2. Western and non-Western countries operate in increasingly separate technological spheres. Suppliers and telcos must navigate complex, region-specific supplier networks and potentially develop different technology standards, supply chains and systems that cater to different markets (if they’re able to navigate the complexities of operating in different markets)
    3. Western telco markets are already saturated, highly competitive and even regulated to keep end-user costs controlled, leaving little room for revenue growth. This makes  operations efficiency even more vital than today
    4. Driven by net-zero emissions targets, telco infrastructure becomes highly resilient and energy-efficient, with significant investments in renewable energy sources and disaster-resilient designs
  2. Open Tech Frontiers:
    1. The market operates with minimal regulatory intervention, allowing for unfettered innovation and competition. This hands-off approach, combined with rapid technological advancement, encourages a proliferation of new entrants and disruptive business models, drastically changing the telco landscape
    2. Segregated global markets lead to “innovation islands” where certain regions advance rapidly, leveraging local supplier networks and homegrown technologies due to restrictions on global trade
    3. Telcos would aggressively invest in new technologies and business models, focusing on innovation and rapid market penetration to leverage first-mover advantages
    4. Rapid technological adoption includes innovations aimed at climate mitigation, such as smart energy grids managed by telecom networks, and adaptive infrastructure designed for extreme weather events
  3. Controlled Stagnation:
    1. Heavy regulation stifles technological advancement, perhaps due to concerns over security, privacy or societal impact. The market is stable but stagnant, with established players maintaining their positions and little room for innovation within the telco sector
    2. Geopolitical divisions exacerbate technological stagnation, with countries retreating into tech self-sufficiency or protectionism, leading to duplicated efforts and inefficiencies
    3. Telcos may resort to cost-optimisation strategies, focusing on maintaining existing customer bases and extracting value from established services.
    4. Regulations may focus heavily on reducing emissions and increasing network resilience, but technological stagnation limits the implementation of cutting-edge green technologies and resilient designs
  4. Unregulated Stalemate:
    1. despite a deregulated market, technological growth has not kept pace due to economic downturns, supply chain disruptions, or a lack of investment in R&D. The industry might see further cost-cutting and consolidation as companies struggle to find growth opportunities
    2. Lack of cooperation hampers global innovation. Telecom companies might repurpose or adapt existing technologies to comply with regional standards, leading to fragmented service capabilities
    3. Telcos may face a really challenging environment, with a focus on cost reduction and maintaining service in a difficult economic climate. leaving little room for systems or infrastructure investment
    4. The push for climate resilience and sustainability becomes a grassroots effort, with telcos responding to localised climate demands. This may lead to uneven progress, with some regions advancing further than others due to varying levels of resource allocation and climate vulnerability

What do you think of these scenarios? How would you change them? What are they missing?

Leave us a note if you think the base models should be tweaked before we then perform a deep dive and consider what impacts there will be on the OSS/BSS industry under each of these situations.

 

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