Future Scenario Planning: Have you given up on doing an OSS transformation? (part 1)

Earlier in the week, a friend mentioned he was reading “Alchemy” by Rory Sutherland.  It’s not an OSS book per se, but does provide some great examples for helping us think in original ways – a must-have skill for any OSS practitioner!

“Alchemy” helps with some really lateral ways for re-framing problems. In one example, Sutherland points out that when considering improvements to the Channel Tunnel rail link, a significant focus was placed on reducing the journey time between London and Paris. Engineers and planners looked at investing billions to shave off a mere twenty minutes from the journey.

Sutherland proposes a lateral alternative. Rather than spending vast sums on reducing travel time, why not invest in making the journey time more enjoyable or productive for passengers? He humorously suggests outfitting the train with models to serve free Château Pétrus wine to passengers, arguing that this would not only make the journey more enjoyable but might actually have people wishing it were longer.

It’s such a good book that it made it onto my list of favourite OSS books (although I should point out that there are almost no pure OSS books on the list, although every one of them has significantly changed my perspectives on OSS – in many different and unexpected ways).

Anyway, that got me thinking about another great book (not an OSS book) on my favourite OSS book list – The Art of the Long View: Planning for the Future in an Uncertain World by Peter Schwartz. It’s from 1996, but has proven to be quite seminal for futurists. Schwartz describes that it’s impossible to predict the future, but it is possible to build long-range scenario plans that often do highlight ways you can pre-plan and shape the future.

“No matter what future takes place, you are much more likely to be ready for it – and influential in it – if you have thought seriously about scenarios.”
Peter Schwartz

The thing I find really interesting about OSS/BSS transformation projects is that most people start from the perspective of building a slightly better solution for the current environment. My perspective is a little different to that. I figure that OSS/BSS transformations are always an investment for at least 5 years, and perhaps as long as a decade. To have any chance of remaining relevant, the OSS/BSS has to be built for an environment 5-10 years into the future. That’s where two important exercises come into play:

1. Future scenario planning
2. Re-framing

Would you like us to share some future scenario plans – where we’ll use the concepts in Schwartz’s book to describe how the future of telco / OSS/BSS might play out? If you would, please leave us a “yes” or other related suggestions in the comments section below.

Schwartz’s methodology can be particularly effective in the telecommunications industry, where rapid technological advancements and shifting regulatory landscapes present both challenges and opportunities. The following outlines how the key concepts of the book would be applied to the world of telecom and specifically to OSS/BSS.

Scenario Planning for Future Impacts to Telecom

Step 1 – In-depth research:

In-depth research for scenario planning in the telco/OSS/BSS industries should encompass a broad range of areas to ensure a comprehensive understanding of potential future environments. Here are the key research domains and specific focal points – including:

• Emerging technologies (eg AR/VR, AI, quantum computing, automation, virtualisation, edge compute & use-cases, self-healing systems/networks, proliferation of sensors / IoT, LEO satellite comms, new radio communication tech, green energy products, chips, robotics, smart contracts, etc)
• Market dynamics such as:
  • Regulatory changes (net neutrality, hyperscaler influences, data protection laws, changing law & fee structures, etc)
  • Usage patterns (increased consumption of 4K/8K video, AI LLMs, immersive world generation, gaming, increasing digitalisation and Internet access in developing countries),
  • Enterprise services evolution (the growing needs of businesses including cloud services, cybersecurity, the overlap of comms with IT to solve business problems and bespoke connectivity solutions)
  • Competition, collaboration, monetisation & incentivisation (In the telco sector such as LEO satellite services and asset carve-outs, as well as the likelihood of significant M&A consolidation and partnerships in a highly fragmented OSS/BSS market) and
  • Evolving customer demands and behaviours (these potentially vary by product, segment, region, etc so it’s a multi-layered consideration)
• Economic and Geopolitical / Sociopolitical Factors (Ray Dalio’s recent essay, “In China: The 100-Year Storm on the Horizon and How the Five Big Forces Are Playing Out” is a great source of insight here):
  • Economic trends that could influence investment in telecom infrastructure and service affordability
  • The impact of international relations on supply chain, market access, cybersecurity, etc including regional specialisation in the types of emerging technologies listed above and associated supply chains
  • Policy changes that affect market structure, competition, tariffs / investment incentives, cultural clashes, data privacy, digital inclusion, carbon reduction, etc

Step 2 – Develop Scenario Logic:

Determine the foundational logic of the scenario planning by:

• Ranking the driving forces by their level of importance and uncertainty:
  •  Emerging Technologies: Recognise which technologies have the potential to be industry-disruptive, focusing on those that could redefine network management, service delivery, and customer engagement.
  • Market Dynamics: Distil how changes in regulation, enterprise needs, and evolving consumer behaviours may alter the competitive landscape and service expectations.
  • Economic and Geopolitical Factors: Determine how economic shifts and geopolitical events could impact global supply chains, market access, and investment strategies
• Focusing on the most impactful and uncertain driving forces for scenario development
  • High Importance & High Uncertainty: These are the prime candidates for forming the axes of your scenario matrix. For instance, the impact of regulatory changes on market structures and the adoption rate of emerging technologies like quantum computing or LEO satellites. Regulatory and Technology factors are likely to be of high importance and high uncertainty.
  • High Importance & Low Uncertainty: Trends that are almost certain to occur and will have a significant impact, like the increased consumption of high-definition video, need to be closely monitored and integrated into all scenarios. Geopolitical instability and climate change are high importance and low uncertainty (ie. highly likely)
• Choosing several critical uncertainties to form the axes of a scenario matrix, creating a range of possible future environments
  • Axis One (Vertical): Could represent the regulatory environment, ranging from ‘stringent regulation’ to ‘deregulated market’.
  • Axis Two (Horizontal): Could represent technological adoption, ranging from ‘rapid and disruptive technological evolution’ to ‘stagnated technological growth’.
  • From this 2 x 2 matrix, four distinct scenarios emerge at each quadrant intersection, offering diverse future landscapes to explore in the next steps of the scenario planning process. These scenarios will be enriched by including the other identified forces, like market dynamics and geopolitical factors, ensuring a robust set of 4 scenarios that account for various potential future states of the telco/OSS/BSS industries

Step 3 – Develop diverse scenarios:

Create multiple, plausible future scenarios that reflect the potential directions of the telecom industry. These should account for variables like  Scenarios could range from the widespread adoption of IoT devices leading to increased demand for bandwidth, to regulatory changes affecting market access or net neutrality.

Step 4 – Within those scenarios, analyse impact on OSS/BSS:

Assess how each scenario could impact OSS (managing network operations, service provisioning) and BSS (billing, customer relationship management). For example, a scenario with a massive increase in IoT devices might require OSS/BSS to handle a vast number of small, automated transactions (swarm and/or intent processing as a cohort rather than as individual devices).

What Happens Next?

Don’t forget to leave a “yes” in the comments below if you’d like us to share some scenario planning for the OSS / telco industries.

If there’s suitable interest, we’ll share a 2 x 2 matrix of scenarios for further analysis.