“The Delphi method is a structured communication technique, originally developed as a systematic, interactive forecasting method which relies on a panel of experts. The experts answer questionnaires in two or more rounds. After each round, a facilitator provides an anonymous summary of the experts’ forecasts from the previous round as well as the reasons they provided for their judgments. Thus, experts are encouraged to revise their earlier answers in light of the replies of other members of their panel.”
Wikipedia article on Delphi Polling.
In yesterday’s post I quoted Patrick J. Kiger in an article about futurists on howstuffworks.com. Delphi Polling was mentioned in the article, something I hadn’t heard of before but it is apparently used for predicting future trends.
Apparently it works best when a team of experts gather and share their predictions on future trends. This approach sounds like a really interesting challenge for our OSS community. If you’re interested in participating in a Delphi Poll on the following question, please let me know via the contact-us form:
“What are the revolutionary trends that you predict for OSS over the next 5-10 years?”